Oilers Slightly Favored Over Panthers In Stanley Cup Final Rematch

LAS VEGAS (AP) - The Stanley Cup Final is so close to being a tossup, would likely be favored if the Panthers had home-ice advantage.


But that edge belongs to Edmonton, which mostly describes why the Oilers are minor favorites to win the series, which starts Wednesday.


"However you wish to look at this pie, you might make an argument that either group could be preferred," Caesars Sportsbook head of hockey Karry Shreeve said. "Home ice is absolutely playing a part. You're just playing the portions. The group that wins Game 1 of the Stanley Cup, they go on to win approximately 75% of the time."


BetMGM Sportsbook lists the Oilers as -130 favorites to win Game 1 and take that essential 1-0 series lead. The sportsbook makes Edmonton as the -125 favorite to end up being the first Canadian team since Montreal in 1993 to hoist the Stanley Cup.


Defending champion Florida, which beat Edmonton in 7 games last year, is the +105 underdog.


BetMGM trading manager Christian Cipollini said about 55% of the cash has come in on the Oilers.


Edmonton Oilers' Connor McDavid (97) speaks to media during a news conference, Tuesday, June 3, 2025, in Edmonton, Alberta, ahead of Game 1 of the NHL hockey Stanley Cup final series versus the Florida Panthers. (Jason Franson/The Canadian Press by means of AP)


"I would expect that to probably continue," Cipollini said. "I believe we'll most likely take a little more Oilers money even if of Connor McDavid, but this is a rematch. Florida won last year, so I think we will wind up getting an even forecast."


Hockey handicapper Alex B. Smith, who co-hosts The Ice Guys podcast, does not purchase the Oilers need to be favored.


"You don't see rematches too typically in the Cup Final," Smith stated. "When you do, you constantly ask yourself the apparent question: Are these two teams better or worse than they were in 2015? I 'd say Florida is a better variation of themselves from last year. Edmonton (is) slightly worse than in 2015, particularly when you take a look at no Zach Hyman available for this series. Connor Brown is returning for Game 1, but how healthy is he going to be?


"I give the edges to Florida based off of they have actually been playing much better, sound defense. I think they're a tighter group than they were in 2015."


Edmonton's captain ended up being the 2nd skater and sixth gamer to be awarded the Conn Smythe Trophy as the playoffs MVP last season while using the losing team.


McDavid leads this postseason in scoring with 26 points, one ahead of teammate Leon Draisaitl, and is the +100 preferred at BetMGM to win the Conn Smythe, offering him a possibility to make even more history even if the Panthers win.


"Are they actually going to give McDavid back-to-back Conn Smythes in losing efforts?" Cipollini asked. "He is the preferred due to the fact that of the points scored and there's currently a precedent that they might offer it to him here, but that's something to watch as the video games get going. If there is a Florida gamer that isn't actually sticking out ... there is a real life where it could be him again in a losing effort."


Oilers goalie Stuart Skinner has actually long been considered as a weakness on the lineup, a credibility that seemed sealed when he was benched two games into the playoffs.


But Skinner is a significant factor Edmonton is still playing. He has permitted one or no goals in five of his previous 7 starts, three of them shutouts.


Another terrific run in the web could put Skinner, listed +3500 at BetMGM, in position to win the Conn Smythe.


"I would not have actually told you this was sustainable previously," Smith said of Skinner's hot play. "Now, with one series left, it definitely is sustainable."


Florida is making its third consecutive appearance in the Stanley Cup Final, another deep run in which tiredness might finally reach the Panthers. Or they might simply be on a heating unit having actually won 10 of their previous 11 playoff series.


Shreeve said the metrics point to a Panthers champion and though either outcome would be fine with Caesars, a Florida victory would be much better.


"I wear ´ t hate where we ´ re at with this one," Shreeve stated. "Last year was a little bit tougher because more people liked Florida, however people are everything about Edmonton this postseason, which I like."


Because this series obviously might go in any case and Oklahoma City is greatly preferred over Indiana in the NBA Finals, that might increase wagering interest in the Stanley Cup Final.


"I believe it helps the NBA is getting the less sexier match," Shreeve said. "The more bettable series is going to be Edmonton-Florida. If things stay tight, it has an opportunity to go 6 or seven games, which would assist."


AP NHL playoffs: https://apnews.com/hub/stanley-cup and https://apnews.com/hub/nhl


Edmonton Oilers' Leon Draisaitl (29) and Connor McDavid (97) participate in practice, Tuesday, June 3, 2025, in Edmonton, Alberta, ahead of Game 1 of the NHL hockey Stanley Cup last series versus the Florida Panthers. (Jason Franson/The Canadian Press via AP)


FILE - Florida Panthers forward Aleksander Barkov raises the Stanley Cup after defeating the Edmonton Oilers in Game 7 of the NHL hockey Stanley Cup Final, Monday, June 24, 2024, in Sunrise, Fla. (Nathan Denette/The Canadian Press through AP, File)